Every investor is hoping to avoid investment risks, and try to obtain a stable return. The problem is even though the return obtained through low-risk investment is stable, but there is also low level return. Keep your long-term investment in low-risk and low-return product can bring a lot of risk.
Let's see an Example: Investment strategy 1: Starting from the age of 25, invest $10,000 per year, for 50 years. Assuming that all fund will be invested in index funds such as S&P 500, and can get annualized 8% real return. Investment Strategy 2: Starting from the age of 25, investing $20,000 a year for 50 years, and assuming that all fund will be put in low-risk government bonds and high-rated corporate bond mutual funds. And expect to get a 4% annualized real return. What do you think will be the result of the these two portfolios when you are 75 years old, which is after 50 years? Which one will have a higher net investment value?
Let me tell you: The net value of investment strategy 1 will be $5.73 million, while the net value of investment strategy 2 is only $3.05 million. For strategy 2, the fund invested each year is twice the comparison strategy 1, and the final portfolio net value is only nearly half. This is the inevitable consequence of excessive risk mitigation in long-term investment. On other words, avoiding necessary risk in long term investment is taking a huge risk to your investment object.
The above calculation does not take into account the inflation factor. If the average annual inflation rate is 2%, the actual real returns after inflation adjustment of the two investment strategies are 6% and 2% respectively, and the final actual investment portfolio net value of these two strategies will be far more different.
Unfortunately, in real life, many people actually choose investment strategy 2.
Below is Translation in Chinese.
投资者都希望能够规避投资风险, 寄希望于在低风险甚至无风险的条件下获得相对稳定的投资回报. 问题是, 低风险条件下获得的投资回报尽管确实是稳定的, 但也是低水平的回报. 长期遵循这一方式进行投资却可能带来很大的收益风险.
如果有这样一个问题: 投资策略一: 从25岁开始, 每年拿出10K进行投资, 也就是10000 块钱, 持续50年, 假设主要投资在S&P 500等被动式指数基金上, 并能获得年化 8% 的回报. 投资策略二: 从25岁开始, 勒紧裤腰带, 每年拿出20000块钱进行投资, 也持续50年, 并假设主要投资在低风险的政府债券和高评级企业债券基金上, 并预期获得 4% 的年化回报. 你觉得到75岁的时候, 两个投资组合的成果将会如何? 哪一个会有比较高的投资净值?
让我来告诉你: 投资策略一的净值将是573万, 而投资策略二的净值却只有305万. 勒紧了裤腰带, 每年投入的金额都是比较方案的两倍, 而最后的投资组合净值却只有将近一半. 这就是在长期投资中过于规避风险的必然后果. 换句话说, 在长期投资中, 试图规避风险这一行为本身就可能对你的投资目标带来巨大的风险.
上述计算没有考虑通货膨胀的因素, 如果每年的通货膨胀率为2%, 则两个投资策略的扣除通胀因素之后的实际回报分别为6%和2%, 对应的实际投资净值的差异会更加大.
不幸的是, 在现实生活中, 很多人实际选择的是投资策略二.